Nintendo's Role in Sony's Fall

How to see the future:

Analysts are famous for making predictions about the future of the video game industry. Xbox 360 will outsell Revolution! PS3 will be double the price of the Xbox 360 at launch! Humans will live on the moon by 2010!

Most of these predictions are based on detailed analysis of production rates, survey results, and cost predictions; lots of hard, concrete details.

I’m going to present a less founded perspective. It’s like chess; one player moves, the other counters – Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo are the players controlling the pieces, with the occasional appearance of guest players that influence the game along the way, such as Apple Computer. The one that can predict the other’s move far enough into the future wins.

A Timeline of the Future:

For the most part, we know the moves that companies will make, but not all of them. Not even close. Any of the companies could pull out something unexpected, and probably will. This timeline is only one possability of how elements will play out. Also on the timeline are elements that have already happened. Not all of them happened at the same time, but are listed together because they influence one another. For example, the release of the iPod Video is listed together with the release of the Xbox 360, which is not technically accurate – the iPod reached the market before the 360. They’re listed together because both products impact Sony.