But will it last? A recent L.A. Times article floats the possibility that the Wii's success will be short lived, that it is marketing to a casual demographic that's likely to abandon it as soon as a fancier, shinier toy hits the market. It doesn't help that the system has yet to prove itself beyond fairly shallow party games, making people wonder if the system will retain its appeal after people tire of Rayman. In fact, the flood of quality party games on the Wii is making the market hard for even classic Nintendo-brand party games; Mario Party 8 for the Wii has been receiving rough reviews in part because so many other titles in the genre already exist.
But is the Wii's success short lived? I think there are dangers in looking at the Wii's initial focus and dismissing its success as a fad.
Why the Wii Isn't Temporary:
Let's take a look at one or two of the reasons that people may worry that the Wii's success won't last.1.) The Wii's Weak Graphics:
Compared to the Xbox 360 and the PS3, the Wii is very weak in the hardware department. Its controller is the feature that makes it next-generation, not its ability to display pretty graphics. In fact, the Wii's graphical abilities are only mildly better than the GameCube, not the leaps and bounds found in both Microsoft and Sony's offerings. As a consequence, the Wii is likely to start looking dated earlier in its lifecycle than its competition. In five years, the Wii will have graphics that fundamentally compare to what we were playing with 3 years ago, while the 360 and PS3 will be hitting their full stride.
But graphics aren't everything; instead, user base is. The PS2 is a perfect example of this. Despite having the weakest graphics of the last generation (against the GameCube and the original Xbox), it was by far the most successful platform in terms of sales and market penetration.
What Matters is Install Base:
A console with a large install base can sell a great deal of games, which is where most console manufacturers truely make their money. Each person that buys a Wii becomes a person that Nintendo can potentially sell games to, making them an extended customer; even if the system starts looking dated with time, users will stay with what they own instead of buying a new system. Because there's a large user base, game developers are more likely to make games for the system, thus attracting additional gamers to the Wii. It's a cycle that, once it's started, is very difficult to break. It's this cycle that had the PS2 beating out the competition in the last round, despite having poor graphics.Microsoft attempted to start a similar cycle for themselves by releasing the Xbox 360 one year early, but Nintendo is apparently the company that achieved it. Even if the Wii's graphics start looking old in a year or two, the system will have penetrated into enough homes to make them the platform of choice for consumers when they buy new games, and the console of choice for developers when the decide to make them.