Is the Bloom Off the Wii Rose?

Sales of the Wii console have taken a hit this year, doing somewhat over half the business of last year. Nintendo President Satoru Iwata blames the lack of big titles.  Meanwhile, an interesting essay on Basement.org suggests the Wii's day is over because the casual gamers Nintendo went after lack the interest in anything beyond simple casual games and are happy with the games they have or have just stopped playing the Wii altogether, while hardcore gamers prefer the PS3 and Xbox 360.

What will Nintendo do?  Well, they'll put out games that appeal to the Nintendo base, like the upcoming New Super Mario Bros. Wii, and they may come out with an HD version of the Wii sometime soon, or a new Wii 2 altogether a little further down the road.  And even though it seems to be a losing strategy at this point, they will probably continue trying to woo those casual gamers with lame pseudo games.

What should Nintendo do?  I've long held that  focusing on the casual gamer at the expense of the hardcore gamer was ultimately a losing proposition.  Casual gamers bought the Wii because it was a novelty, and tend to buy games only if they are also novelties, which is why Wii Fit Plus and Wii Sports Resort have done so well.  But these people aren't serious gamers and they're just not going to buy a lot of games. This is why the Wii started off as such a phenomenon and has now fallen so dramatically.  Nintendo had a brilliant short-term marketing strategy but didn't think far enough ahead.  Had they focused more on core gaming (Nintendo only has one title on my top core games list), they could have built their market; instead, their boom has been followed by a bust.

I still believe the Wii's appeal can be broadened, although New Super Mario Bros. Wii isn't the answer; it will sell well, but it's strictly for Nintendo fans who bought a Wii long ago.  HD isn't the answer either, because games on an HD Wii are still not going to look as good as on an Xbox 360 or PS3.  A new Wii with much more powerful graphics will help some, but as Nintendo should have learned with the GameCube, it's not all about graphics.

It's mainly about games, and the Wii's game library is weak and riddled with shovelware.  Nintendo needs to focus on broadening it's own offerings and somehow encouraging third party publishers to broaden theirs.  Unfortunately, this cannot be done quickly, and the Wii is going to lose a lot of ground now that it's lost its initial momentum.  The question is whether they can find their footing again or whether Microsoft's Project Natal will sink the Wii altogether.  Nintendo needs a major course correction now, and the question becomes whether such a big behemoth can turn quickly enough to stay even with the competition.